chinese economic by 2010 at present

2010–present[edit]

By 2010 it was evident to outside observers such as The New York Times that China was poised to move from export dependency to development of an internal market. Wages were rapidly rising in all areas of the country and Chinese leaders were calling for an increased standard of living.^[41]

China is the largest creditor nation in the world and owns approximately 20.8% of all foreign-owned US Treasury securities.^[44]In 2010, China's GDP was valued at $5.87 trillion, surpassed Japan's $5.47 trillion, and became the world's second largest economy after the U.S.^[42] China could become the world's largest economy (by nominal GDP) sometime as early as 2020.^[43]

The World Bank's chief economist Justin Lin in 2011 stated that China, which became the world's second largest economy in 2010, may become the world's largest economy in 2030, overtaking the United States, if current trends continue. Challenges include income inequality and pollution.^[45] The Standard Chartered Bank in a 2011 report suggested that China may become the world's largest economy in 2020.^[46]

A 2007 OECD report by Angus Maddison estimated that if using purchasing power parity conversions, then China will overtake the United States in 2015. China recently emerged as the sole nation in Asia to register a GDP figure above the $10-trillion mark, alongside the United States and the European Union.^[47] James Wolfensohn, former World Bank president, estimated in 2010 that by 2030 two-thirds of the world's middle class will live in China.^[48] The Director of the China Center for Economic Reform at Peking University Yao Yang in 2011 stated that "Assuming that the Chinese and U.S. economies grow, respectively, by 8% and 3% in real terms, that China's inflation rate is 3.6% and America's is 2% (the averages of the last decade), and that the renminbi appreciates against the dollar by 3% per year (the average of the last six years), China would become the world's largest economy by 2021. By that time, both countries' GDP will be about $24 trillion."^[49]

In 2011, the IMF warned that government controlled banks could be building up imbalances that could hamper growth and leave the system "severely impacted".^[50] In 2011, the IMF predicted that China's GDP (purchasing power parity adjusted) would overtake that of the United States in 2016.^[51] The state favours state-owned enterprises despite lower productivity; this crowds out competition, in a phenomenon known as Guo jin min tui.^[52][53]

From 2011 onward, however, China has been experiencing a slowing of its growth that throws all of the above calculations into doubt. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, told the Council of Foreign Relations that he foresaw Chinese GDP falling to 4-5% due to failure to switch successfully from the export-driven model to more consumption.^[54]However a 2012 Morgan Stanley found that official government statistics may be greatly undercounting the actual level of consumer consumption.^[55]

In 2012, Amnesty International reported that forced evictions that resulted from a construction boom caused by excessive stimulus spending were a serious threat to China's social and political stability.^[56]

Due to worsening pollution, the corruption and political uncertainties of the one-party state and the limited economic freedom in an economy dominated by large state-owned enterprises, many skilled professionals are either leaving the country or preparing safety nets for themselves abroad.^[57][58] In the decade up to 2014, 10 million Chinese emigrated to other countries, taking assets and their technical skills.^[59] Perceived corruption continued to grow worse in China as it dropped from 75th to 80th place in Transparency International's index of state corruption.^[60]

A law approved February 2013 will mandate a nationwide minimum wage at 40% average urban salaries to be phased in fully by 2015.^[61